I combine geospatial, statistical and mechanistic modelling methods- supported by a healthy dose of field data- to study the biogeography of environmental change and answer a variety of questions:
- How does a species’ physiology constrain its distribution?
- How do different life stages of the same species respond to changes in climate or land cover?
- How well do known distributions predict a species’ physiological niche?
I’m also interested in how methodology affects the predictions of all of the spatially -explicit models I use:
- How do the spatial and temporal resolution of inputs affect model outputs?
- What resolution(s) optimise model accuracy, relative to field measurements?
- How are predictions affected by uncertainty and error in a model?
- What spatial resolution is needed to locate micro-refugia and range edges in complex terrain?
And each model is relevant to understanding the ecology and, probably, to conservation of a species:
- How will climate change affect sex ratios in species with temperature-dependent sex determination?
- What locations may be suitable translocation sites in the future?
- How do disparate effects on different life stages inform conservation efforts?